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CDC Editorial Note Although previous national surveys have shown that cigarette smoking rates among black high school students have been increasing, black students still were smoking at much lower rates than other high school students. However, the findings in this report indicate that current cigarette smoking prevalence among middle school black students was similar to rates among white and Hispanic students and that current cigar use prevalence among middle school black students was significantly higher than among white students. Future surveys should evaluate whether the rate of increase in smoking rates among black students has accelerated and whether the difference in smoking rates between black and white high school students are disappearing. In addition, more research is needed to determine whether black youth are finding smoking appealing and socially acceptable. Current use of novel tobacco products, such as bidis and kreteks, is an emerging public health problem among U.S. youth. Cigarettes remain the most widely used tobacco product by youth; however, recent trends underscore the importance of monitoring the rates at which youth adopt other tobacco products. The social and cultural factors related to differing patterns of tobacco product use across sex and racial/ethnic groups require additional study. The 1999 NYTS estimates for high school students will be compared with those of the Monitoring The Future (MTF) study and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), the other national school-based surveys. Comparison of NYTS estimates with those of other national surveys must be interpreted with caution for several reasons. First, YRBS and MTF were conducted during spring 1999, and NYTS was conducted during September-October 1999, a different academic year. Within each grade, the fall school population is approximately 6 months younger than the spring school population. This difference can be expected to lead to higher estimates of ever smoking in the spring surveys and may lead to higher estimates of current smoking. Second, the tobacco industry increased the wholesale price of tobacco products during 1999, but also provided substantial price discounts during the same period, making determination of the precise effect of retail prices on smoking rates difficult. However, preliminary per capita consumption estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggest cigarette consumption has decreased in 1999, suggesting that the prevalence among youth also may have decreased. Third, the NYTS is a single-topic survey (tobacco), and MTF and YRBS are multi-topic surveys. The effect of the number of topics surveyed on the resulting estimates is unknown. Finally, NYTS had a 90% school response rate, a higher reported school response rate than YRBS and MTF. Some schools that participated in the NYTS may not participate in YRBS or MTF. The findings in this report are subject to at least two limitations. First, these data apply only to youth who attended middle or high school and are not representative of all persons in this age group. Few persons aged less than 16 years do not attend school and, in 1997, only 4% of 16-year-olds and 6% of 17-year-olds who had not completed high school were not enrolled in a high school program. The dropout rate for young adults aged 16-24 years varies greatly by race/ethnicity (7.6%, white; 13.4%, black; and 25.3%, Hispanic). Second, "any current tobacco use" might be underestimated in this report because it does not include a measure of "roll-your-own" tobacco smoking. To evaluate the potential impact of the expanding levels of tobacco prevention efforts nationwide and in the individual states, surveillance of trends in tobacco use among youth must be continued and expanded. YRBS has provided national and state-specific surveillance of tobacco use among high school students since 1991. The NYTS and state-specific youth tobacco surveys are extending this surveillance effort to middle school students and across a wider range of evaluation variables, including knowledge and attitudes about tobacco, exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, familiarity with pro-smoking and antismoking media messages, and exposure to tobacco-use prevention curriculum in schools. CDC has prepared "Best Practices" guidelines to help states determine funding priorities and to plan and carry out effective comprehensive tobacco-use prevention and control programs. If current patterns of smoking behavior persist, an estimated 5 million U.S. persons who were aged less than or equal to 18 years in 1995 could die prematurely from smoking-related illnesses. Implementation of the "Best Practices" guidelines, along with nationwide prevention efforts, enforcement of the proposed Food and Drug Administration rules, increases in the excise tax on tobacco products, and increased availability of smoking cessation treatment options, could dramatically reduce these projected deaths. Click here for the full text of this article. --------------- As such, this survey will provide us with considerable new knowledge about the onset of the nicotine epidemic and should serve to remind us not to forget about all forms of tobacco use. We look forward to reading future reports on the 1999 survey and hope that future surveys will be conducted to enable us to examine trends over time. The prevalence of current cigarette use among high school students in Fall 1999 has decreased substantially since Spring 1997. These comparisons are shown in Table 2 below.
Current smokeless tobacco among male high school students declined from 15.8% (± 3.7) in 1997 to 11.6% (± 2.8) in 1999; however, this decline was not statistically significant (as the 95% confidence intervals overlap). The declines in cigarette use may be due to events that occurred in the interim (e.g. price increases due to the Tobacco Settlement or state tax increases) or to cohort differences. However, it's also possible that the differences in smoking prevalence are at least partially attributable to differences in the methods used in these two surveys (e.g., different content of survey questionnaires and response rates). The National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) appears to have employed very high quality survey methods. Sampling, survey administration, response rates, and weighting and analysis of the data appear to be very strong. The overall response rate of 84% boosts our confidence that the results from this sample are generalizable to the national school population. (The report, however, did not indicate whether private schools were included in the sample.) The overall response rate and the school participation rate (90%) for this survey are remarkable especially as compared to other national school-based surveys (e.g., the overall response rate for the 1997 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) was 69% and for the 1998 Monitoring the Future Survey (MTF) was less than 58%). Also remarkable is how quickly the preliminary findings from this survey were released to the public. Perhaps, other national surveys can be improved in these areas. The 95% confidence interval means that there is a 95% likelihood that the actual value in the population should be within that many percentage points of the observed sample value. For example, 12.8 (± 2.0) for total tobacco use among middle school students (which appears at the end of the first row of Table 1) can be interpreted as follows: there is a 95% likelihood that from 10.8% (12.8 - 2.0) to 14.8% (12.8 + 2.0) of middle school students in the U.S. used some form of tobacco in the 30 days preceding the survey. back |